Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. GPS News .




POLITICAL ECONOMY
'World's workshop' China aims to reinvent itself
by Staff Writers
Beijing (AFP) Nov 12, 2012


China's Communist leaders are promising to revolutionise the world's second largest economy and move on from being the world's workshop, but economists say the monumental task faces major hurdles.

Outgoing President Hu Jintao said GDP would double in a decade and pledged a "transformation of the economic growth model" in his report to the nation at the five-yearly Communist Party congress under way in Beijing.

China's rulers must maintain growth in the economy to justify their claim to legitimacy -- and avoid the spectre of social unrest.

But while selling cheap manufactured goods to the West and spending billions on infrastructure has delivered an economic miracle in recent years, the model is seen as unsustainable in the longer term, and growth is already slowing.

"We should speed up the creation of a new growth model and ensure that development is based on improved quality and performance," Hu said, adding China would seek to become an innovative technology giant as low-cost manufacturing relocates elsewhere.

The country also needs to make domestic consumption a pillar of the economy, a joint report by the government and the World Bank said in February -- endorsed by Xi Jinping, who is expected to take over as party leader from Hu this week.

But the changes could have enormous human costs in terms of job losses, which in turn could fuel unrest -- anathema to the ruling party. And training unqualified workers to compete with Western economies is a gigantic task.

A few Chinese manufacturing sectors have been able to compete directly with Western firms, including those in communications and high-speed trains.

China is also said to be developing a domestic airliner that could challenge Boeing and Airbus for sales.

But for now the economic boom remains firmly dependent on a cheap workforce, an undervalued currency and artificially low interest rates, Michael Pettis, finance professor at Peking University, told AFP.

"To be profitable in China does not require technological innovation. What matters is access to cheap credit and government connections," Pettis said.

Labour-intensive industries, such as textiles and shoes, have already begun to leave for less-developed cheaper nations including Indonesia and Vietnam.

"China will remain a manufacturing powerhouse but much of the lower end will be transferred to lower-wage countries in Asia, but also possibly to Latin America and Africa," said Jean-Pierre Lehmann, director of the Evian Group, a think tank.

China's new economic goals may mean fewer of the huge investment projects the government prioritised in recent years, such as airports, highways and high-speed trains.

Fixed-asset investment -- from infrastructure to housing -- accounted for more than half of gross domestic product last year, though it has been growing at a slower pace.

As China places less importance on exports, future growth will also be more dependent on household spending, which made up less than 40 percent of GDP in recent years.

Top economic planning official Zhang Ping said at the weekend that domestic consumption contributed more to GDP growth than investment in the first nine months of the year.

But consumption will have to grow faster to make up for any investment slowdown. And limited social safety nets in China mean households save around half their incomes in case of crises or to send their children to university -- a major brake on consumption spending.

Peking University's Pettis said: "I think we should expect a sharp slowdown in GDP growth over the next decade," as China tries to realign the economy.

With China a key driver of global growth that could have significant negative effects on the rest of the world.

Beijing was saying, "We no longer want to be the Christmas ornament capital of the world, we're happy for those low skill, low value-added, low wage jobs to go to other countries," said Andy Rothman, China economist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Shanghai.

"The biggest impact is going to be felt by people who have been exporting raw materials to China," he said, citing Australia, Brazil and Indonesia.

But there will be winners as well as losers, he added. "This is actually good for more developed economies like Germany or the United States who are shipping more complicated, advanced machineries to Chinese factories."

Reforms can be "fairly painful" in the early stages and can cause short-term unemployment "even if long-term gains are significant", said Ben Simpfendorfer, managing director of Hong Kong-based consultancy Silk Road Associates. But he added that imports from the rest of the world should increase.

If China can fulfil Hu's promises, about half of the population -- around 700 million people -- will join the middle class by 2020 with annual income between $7,000 and $23,000, the Boston Consulting Group said in a report.

On a purchasing power parity basis China is expected to overtake the United States as the world's biggest economy in 2016, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said Friday.

But even then per capita gross domestic product will still be only a quarter of the US.

.


Related Links
The Economy






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








POLITICAL ECONOMY
Japan's economy shrinks, raising fears of recession
Tokyo (AFP) Nov 12, 2012
Japan's economy shrank in the latest quarter, data showed Monday, raising fears it could slip into recession due to financial turmoil in Europe, a strong yen and a painful diplomatic row with China. The world's third-largest economy contracted 0.9 percent between July and September from the previous three months, equivalent to an annualised 3.5 percent drop which Prime Minister Yoshihiko Nod ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
Walker's World: Food crisis again

Malaysia slams proposed 300% French "Nutella" palm tax

Arabica coffee could be extinct in the wild within 70 years

Carbon buried in the soil rises again

POLITICAL ECONOMY
No Japan electronics bailout, minister hints

Quantum kisses change the color of nothing

Ultrasensitive photon hunter

Northrop Grumman Begins Sampling New Gallium Nitride MMIC Product Line

POLITICAL ECONOMY
NGC Signs Danish Composite Manufacturer For F-35 Lightning II Program

F-35 Stopover in Marietta

EU freezes controversial aviation carbon tax

Eglin Completes 500th F-35 Sortie

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Japan car sales in China fall 59.4% in October: group

Green cars ready to race in 2nd Atacama solar challenge

China auto firms in 'strategic alliance' to compete

Glow-in-the-dark roads will guide drivers

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Falling aluminium prices hit Rusal earnings

Japan steelmaking giant posts $3.9 bn first-half loss

Miner Lynas wins court battle against Malaysia activists

Storm Sandy delays global launch of Titanic II

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Mountain meadows dwindling in the Pacific Northwest

New three-fingered frog discovered in southern Brazil

Action needed to prevent more devastating tree diseases entering the UK

Inspiration from Mother Nature leads to improved wood

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Storms, Ozone, Vegetation and More: NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP Satellite Returns First Year of Data

NASA's SPoRT Team Tracks Hurricane Sandy

Sizing up biomass from space

NASA Radar Penetrates Thick, Thin of Gulf Oil Spill

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Low-resistance connections facilitate multi-walled carbon nanotubes for interconnects

New discovery shows promise in future speed of synthesizing high-demand nanomaterials

Graphene Mini-Lab

Strengthening fragile forests of carbon nanotubes for new MEMS applications




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement