The scenarios outlined in the study address many of the primary concerns identified by energy and utility industry executives in a recent Ventyx workshop-including uncertainty surrounding GHG legislation and its effect on prices, the impacts of economics and energy efficiency initiatives on demand, the potential for increasing renewable resources and future constraints on resource supply.

Among the study's comprehensive and detailed findings are the following:

+ Moderate CO2 taxes will not curb GHG emissions. A moderate CO2 federal tax (less than $25 per ton by 2032 in 2008 dollars) on all tons of power sector CO2 emissions would collect nearly $1.9 trillion in tax revenue over the study period and raise customer bills 13 percent by 2032.

However, by 2032 CO2 emissions would still increase nearly 60 percent, and gas usage would more than double. This could significantly increase U.S. dependence on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG).

+ CO2 reduction requires increased use of nuclear and renewables and decreased use of coal. Projecting a path to reach a stringent 70-percent CO2 reduction from 2005 levels by 2050 would require increasing U.S. nuclear capacity by more than 60 percent, call for the retirement of more than 170 GW of coal and necessitate the addition of more than 45 GW of solar resources by 2032.

This scenario also assumes a long economic slowdown followed by a slow recovery which aids in limiting CO2 emissions.

+ GHG regulations may kill coal. Participation in G8+5 GHG emissions limits requires the closure of nearly one-fourth of U.S. coal plants by 2015 with the remaining fleet operating at a much lower output level. The U.S. may be the Saudi Arabia of coal, but greenhouse gas regulations may negate coal as a viable fuel source.

+ Renewable energy has an uncertain future. Geothermal, wind and solar are strong candidates for the future; however, questions remain as to whether renewable energy will fulfill its potential and the transmission infrastructure investment will nearly triple current levels to move wind to load centers. Aligning our political and economic objectives with our energy reality is a key to making renewable energy sustainable.

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