Trump caught the world by surprise when he announced the order just hours before meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea, saying Washington would start testing nuclear weapons "on an equal basis" with Moscow and Beijing.
"We are already in the midst of a three-way arms race among Russia, the United States, and China," said William Hartung of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
"A resumption in testing of nuclear warheads would make this unstable situation worse, possibly far worse," he said.
Trump said US testing would begin "immediately," drawing pushback from both China and Russia.
Beijing expressed its hope that Washington would respect its obligations under the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and "take concrete actions to safeguard the global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation system."
And Moscow, which recently tested nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable weapons -- the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon underwater drone -- insisted that those moves did not constitute a direct test of an atomic weapon.
- China would benefit -
But it seems that Pandora's box has been opened.
"By foolishly announcing his intention to resume nuclear testing, Trump will trigger strong international opposition that could unleash a chain reaction of nuclear testing by US adversaries, and blow apart the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty," Arms Control Association Executive Director Daryl Kimball said in a statement.
Doreen Horschig of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) meanwhile said that "the only one who would benefit from nuclear warhead testing would be China, because they haven't done as many as Russia and the US."
According to experts, China is developing its nuclear arsenal at a rapid pace, but still remains far behind the United States and Russia, the world's two leading nuclear powers.
The Pentagon warned last year that China moving faster than anticipated on nuclear arms, particularly in regard to the development of operational warheads.
As of early 2025, China had a total of 600 warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
- 'Big risk' -
International nuclear arms control efforts have meanwhile suffered setbacks.
The latest arms control agreement between Washington and Moscow -- known as New Start, which limited each party to 1,550 deployed strategic offensive warheads and includes a currently suspended verification mechanism -- will expire in February 2026.
Russia has proposed extending the agreement for a year, but has not mentioned any inspections of arsenals.
Asked in October about the issue, Trump responded that extending the deal "sounds like a good idea to me," but the US government has yet to give an indication of what it plans to do.
In July, the Republican leader also said that "we are starting to work on that" issue, noting that it "is a big problem for the world when you take off nuclear restrictions."
The United States also withdrew in 2019 from a major 1987 disarmament treaty on intermediate-range nuclear forces.
Aside from North Korea, no state has officially conducted an explosive nuclear test in three decades, but countries including the United States regularly test their delivery systems such as missiles and warplanes.
Horschig said that as far as nuclear weapons themselves, "everything is done now through computational testing."
"The US is far ahead of Russia and China on how much data it has from this, so it really doesn't need it at the moment," she said of explosive testing.
"None of them actually want to return to testing, but because they're thinking the other is preparing for testing, then that's how we end up testing. So that's the big risk involved at the moment," Horschig added.
Trump keeps world guessing with shock nuclear test order
Aboard Air Force One (AFP) Oct 31, 2025 -
President Donald Trump reiterated Friday that he wants testing of US nuclear weapons, but again failed to clarify whether he meant live explosions in an order that has provoked global tension and confusion..
Asked by an AFP journalist whether he meant conducting underground blasts for the first time in the United States since 1992, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One: "I am not going to say."
"You'll find out very soon, but we're going to do some testing, yeah. Other countries do it. If they're going to do it, we're going do it," he said on his way to spend Halloween at his golf resort in Florida.
No country other than North Korea has conducted an explosive nuclear weapon test for decades. Russia and China have not carried out such tests since 1990 and 1996 respectively.
The 79-year-old Republican first made his surprise testing announcement by social media post on Thursday, minutes before entering a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea.
The announcement came in the wake of Russia saying it had tested a new nuclear-powered cruise missile, the Burevestnik, and a nuclear-powered and nuclear-capable underwater drone.
Iran, whose own controversial nuclear program was bombed by US forces on Trump's orders earlier this year, called Trump's directive "regressive and irresponsible."
"A nuclear-armed bully is resuming testing of atomic weapons. The same bully has been demonizing Iran's peaceful nuclear program," Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on social media.
- 'Pretty responsible' -
Japanese atomic bomb survivors group Nihon Hidankyo sent a letter of protest to the US embassy in Japan.
The order "directly contradicts the efforts by nations around the world striving for a peaceful world without nuclear weapons and is utterly unacceptable," the Nobel Peace Prize-winning group said in the letter obtained by AFP.
Amid concern abroad and some in the US Congress, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the Pentagon was moving "quickly" to follow Trump's orders and said testing was "responsible."
"The president was clear. We need to have a credible nuclear deterrent," he told reporters in Kuala Lumpur.
"Resuming testing is a pretty responsible, very responsible way to do that. I think it makes nuclear conflict less likely."
But China's foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun urged the United States to "earnestly abide" by a global nuclear testing ban.
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres said through a spokesman that "nuclear testing can never be permitted under any circumstances."
The United States has been a signatory since 1996 to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, which bans all atomic test explosions, whether for military or civilian purposes.
- Russia pushes back -
Russia pushed back against any idea that its recent weapon systems tests could justify a return to live test explosions.
The Kremlin questioned whether Trump was well-informed -- and implied Russia would conduct its own live detonations if Trump does so first.
The recent weapons drills "cannot in any way be interpreted as a nuclear test," spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists. "We hope that the information was conveyed correctly to President Trump."
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the Russian stockpile of deployed and stored warheads is 4,309, compared to 3,700 for the United States and 600 for China -- figures that don't take into account hundreds of other warheads scheduled for dismantling.
The United States conducted 1,054 nuclear tests between July 16, 1945, when the first was conducted in New Mexico, and 1992.
Its two nuclear attacks on Japan during World War II make it the only country to have used the weapons in combat.
The last US nuclear test explosion was in September 1992, a 20-kiloton underground detonation at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site.
Then-president George H.W. Bush imposed a moratorium on further tests in October 1992 that has been continued by successive administrations.
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