Trump will cry wolf once too often

Trump will cry wolf once too often
by Harlan Ullman
Washington DC (UPI) Feb 6, 2025

As the principal author of "shock and awe," I believe Donald Trump is in great debt to me for all the shock and awe he is applying at home and abroad with strokes of a Sharpie and verbal dictates.

Threatening high tariffs against Columbia, our neighbors to the north and south and China may lead to positive diplomatic gains. And proposing to shut down the U.S. Agency for International Development and the Education Department has sent high digit Richter numbers throughout the blogosphere.

Trump's initial freeze on government spending provoked great chaos and was suspended. What comes next is uncertain in terms of the specific agencies to be chosen for reform or elimination, except it is unlikely that Trump will slow this frenetic pace of activity down given that this is such a target rich environment.

But that does not mean action is equivalent to progress in making government more effective and efficient and saving money.

What Trump is doing should not be surprising. Many of these initiatives were campaign promises. And many reflect Trump's business practices of staking out extreme positions either to intimidate the other parties or from which to negotiate a deal. However, this tactic has very real downsides.

Much like the boy who cried wolf once too often, these supercharged actions over time will become diluted and lose the force of surprise. The public will tire. And many of these executive actions will lead to lengthy legal proceedings that will stall progress possibly for years. Worse, what happens when people call Trump's bluff?

The president does not have the authority to close legally constituted agencies and offices such as USAID or the Department of Education unilaterally. Congress must change the law. And if Trump ignores congressional approval, a constitutional crisis is more likely than not.

Similarly, Trump cannot summarily fire civil service employees protected by statute. The FBI employs about 38,000 people and 14,000 special agents. About 5,000 to 6,000 were engaged in investigations pertaining to Jan. 6, as well as the federal charges filed against Trump and since dismissed. If a substantial number of those agents were suspended or fired, where would the bureau find replacements?

The U.S. public has been repeatedly warned by senior law enforcement and national security officials of the dangers of terrorism, extremists and enemy agents who have entered the nation illegally. Assuming these threats are real, demands on the FBI will be greater. The substantial loss of agents, if that occurs, would gravely handicap the bureau's ability to protect the nation. Can the nation afford that?

But here is an even more serious scenario. Suppose a crisis broke out over Taiwan, with China threatening an economic air and sea blockade. Would Trump overreact by imposing even more crippling sanctions on Beijing and deploying U.S. military forces to the region with the intent to challenge the blockade. Based on his business history and the first weeks of his second presidency, Trump would expect that these moves would lead to negotiations.

Further suppose China did not back down and issued a warning that any foreign forces entering a no-go zone extending a certain number of miles -- perhaps 30-to 50 -- from Taiwan would be unilaterally attacked.

What would Trump do? Would he persist and order U.S. forces to challenge this zone? And if China attacked these units, would the U.S. escalate, threatening a wider war?

Put another way, if Trump had been president instead of John F. Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, would there have been a similarly peaceful resolution? That is unknowable. However, crying wolf once too often has real risks. And how many more times will Trump metaphorically cry wolf?

A more logical and less chaotic approach would have been to conduct a careful analysis of spending across government along with the relevance of executive branch agencies. A rational approach would lack the drama of ordering shutdowns or threatening tariffs. Understanding intended and unintended consequences of these actions in advance must be seen as smart as opposed to "ready, fire, aim."

Returning to USAID, the list of seemingly ludicrous programs that largely deal with diversity, equality and inclusion), even if cancelled, provides a tiny amount of savings. A million dollars is one-millionth of a trillion dollars! To make savings, go to where the real money is.

Crying wolf may work once, twice or more. But over time, fewer will listen. And that is no way to reform government.

Harlan Ullman is UPI's Arnaud deBorchgrave Distinguished Columnist, senior adviser at Washington's Atlantic Council and principal author of the doctrine of shock and awe. His next book co-written with General The Lord David Richards, former U.K. Chief of Defense and due out late next year, is Insanity: The Absence of Strategic Thinking in a Dangerously Combustible World. The writer can be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.