The U.S. Navy will probably buy more Boeing F/A-18s, and the U.S. Congress may do right by the Air Force and fund 60 more Lockheed Martin/Boeing F-22 Raptors, but after that, it's all F-35. And the U.S. defense establishment in Washington probably won't be able to resist putting the mammoth program through an intense round of scrutiny. Can the Lockheed Martin F-35 deliver?

In the 1990s the Clinton administration scrapped several other new U.S. aircraft to pool money and research for a born-joint tactical aircraft program. Britain joined in, and later so did several other allied partners. The F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighter picked up innovations from the F-22 Raptor program, but it also cleared hurdles of its own, such as development of a revolutionary lift-fan engine for the short take-off and vertical landing version requested by the U.S. Marine Corps. The result was joint and global. Three close-cousin variants of F-35 will deliver to the Marines, allies, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy.

Three things stand out about the F-35 Lightning Joint Strike Fighter. First is its production line. In an era when U.S. manufacturing is under pressure, the F-35 line in Fort Worth, Texas, is one that will make you feel good about the United States. The line is a marvel of sophisticated automation, laser-guided assembly and precision tolerances. The F-35's exterior stealth materials are light years beyond previous coatings. They go on more evenly and are so durable that factory officials let visitors literally walk on samples of the radar-absorbing material.

Second, the F-35 Lightning is a good value. Yes, it will be expensive overall because of its sheer magnitude. What makes it a good value is its efficiency. Ramping up to production of more than 100 aircraft per year will create momentum and help keep unit costs in line. Third, the F-35 Lightning is a hard-power weapon but a soft-power partnership. Achieving true interoperability with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and its member states and other allies will be doubly important as air forces shrink because of decreased defense spending.

However, a few clouds are gathering on the F-35 Lightning's horizon, of course. Intensive flight testing of the F-35 is getting under way, and flight tests usually do yield change orders. Expect the F-35 to have fewer changes than normal because so many of the systems have been pre-tested in labs or on other flying aircraft.

The bigger risk by far will come if the U.S. Department of Defense slows production or cuts the total buy. The so-called acceleration of the F-35 program briefed by Gates sped up parts of the test program but was dwarfed by the much bigger decision to cap peak yearly production for the U.S. Air Force at 80 F-35s per year, instead of the 110 per year budgeted by the service.

The Gates budget will actually leave the U.S. Air Force with almost 80 fewer F-35 Joint Strike Fighters in this five-year budget cycle. If this is a sign of more cuts to come, that's a problem.

Understand that the U.S. Air Force has no other advanced fighter, bomber or unmanned combat aircraft in development in the wake of the Gates decisions. On the Lockheed Martin F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program's broad shoulders rest significant hard- and soft-power options for the United States in the years to come.

(Loren B. Thompson is chief operating officer of the Lexington Institute, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank that supports democracy and the free market.)

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