Study maps agrivoltaic tradeoffs for Midwest farms

by Clarence Oxford
Los Angeles CA (SPX) Mar 11, 2026
In a world facing rising pressure to deliver both reliable food supplies and clean energy, scientists are exploring agrivoltaics as a way to combine solar power with crop production on the same land. A new modeling study led by the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign examines how agrivoltaic systems could alter crop yields and farm profits across the U.S. Midwest, where climate conditions and crop choices vary widely.

The research team developed a process-based model to quantify how solar arrays installed over cropland affect energy capture, water use and plant-soil dynamics. They first validated this framework using the Community Land Model version 5 and published the model description and tests in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. Building on that foundation, they integrated an economic module to compare annual net profits per acre for three options: agrivoltaics, conventional crop-only agriculture and stand-alone solar installations.

To explore regional differences, the scientists ran 15-year simulations across a range of Midwest climate conditions and system designs, assuming agrivoltaic arrays cover 33 percent of each site. They found that average aridity or humidity is a key driver of both crop performance and the economic viability of agrivoltaic projects. Where the climate is humid, shading from panels primarily limits light, while in drier conditions it can ease water stress and change the balance between gains and losses.

In the humid eastern Midwest, the model indicates that solar panel shading reduces photosynthesis enough to cut maize yields by about 24 percent and soybean yields by about 16 percent. Those yield declines translate into lower farm profits compared with conventional agriculture when electricity revenues are considered under typical market conditions. The study highlights that in these wetter regions, the trade-off between electricity generation and crop productivity often works against agrivoltaic adoption for row crops.

By contrast, in the semi-arid parts of the Midwest, shading has a different effect because water, rather than sunlight, is often the primary limiting factor for crops. Under those conditions, the simulations show that panel shade reduces heat and water stress on plants, moderating maize yield losses and actually increasing soybean yields by about 6 percent. In these drier locations, the researchers found that agrivoltaic systems can bring the combined benefits of crop output and solar electricity closer to or above current agricultural baselines.

"Our integrated modeling framework is a new and powerful tool to investigate the food-energy-economic nexus," said crop sciences professor Bin Peng. He noted that the analysis identified clear "win-win" situations where soybean-based agrivoltaics in semi-arid regions offer attractive returns for both farmers and solar developers, underscoring the need to tailor agrivoltaic designs and siting decisions to local climate patterns instead of applying a one-size-fits-all approach.

Co-author Kaiyu Guan, a professor of natural resources and environmental sciences and founding director of the Agroecosystem Sustainability Center, said the detailed simulations can inform planners and investors. According to Guan, the work provides a scientific basis to guide land-use decisions that balance food production, energy development and environmental resilience. The findings can support policymakers, land managers and developers as they evaluate where agrivoltaics can contribute to sustainable expansion of solar power without undermining agricultural output.

However, the study also points out that agrivoltaics face economic hurdles in much of the Midwest when measured against utility-scale stand-alone solar installations. Lead economist Madhu Khanna explained that raising solar arrays high enough for farm machinery and crops increases installation costs, which often makes agrivoltaic projects less competitive for developers. She said that in many cases, policy support or specialized market incentives would be needed to make agrivoltaics with row crops a preferred option over conventional solar farms.

Beyond biophysical factors, the economic performance of agrivoltaic systems depends on shifting market conditions and policy environments. The researchers emphasize that commodity crop prices, land-lease rates for solar projects and evolving weather patterns all influence profitability. Their framework allows these variables to be adjusted, giving decision-makers a tool to test scenarios such as higher grain prices, changes in power purchase agreements or more frequent droughts when assessing agrivoltaic investments.

Research Report:Climate-driven divergence in biophysical and economic impacts of agrivoltaics