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CLIMATE SCIENCE
Scientists fear the worst under a Trump presidency
By Jean-Louis SANTINI
Washington (AFP) Nov 16, 2016


Climate: No country on target for 2C world, says report
Marrakesh, Morocco (AFP) Nov 16, 2016 - No country is shifting from dirty to clean energy fast enough to hold global warming below two degrees Celsius, a ranking of 58 nations responsible for 90 percent of energy-related CO2 emissions showed Wednesday.

Despite a boom in renewables, especially solar and wind, "the necessary energy revolution is still happening too slowly," the Climate Change Performance Index 2017 reported on the margins of UN climate talks in Marrakesh.

The annual assessment of national policies and actions to curb global warming found that the European Union has gone from leader to laggard, with the exception of some of its member states.

France took top honours, in part due to its role in ushering in the landmark Paris Agreement, signed in the French capital last December.

Sweden and Britain took the silver and bronze, mainly for policies put in place by governments no longer in power.

Canada, Australia and Japan filled out the bottom of the ranking, though recent changes of government in Canberra and Ottawa may bode well for future improvements.

The United States, the second largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world after China, got a "poor" rating, losing ground across all categories, the report found.

If president-elect Donald Trump carries through with threats to pull out of the Paris pact, the US ranking would certainly fall further.

Even China -- which has drastically slowed its consumption of CO2-intense coal even as it builds out solar and wind energy capacity -- got a poor mark, coming in 48th among nations.

Nonetheless, China's CO2 emissions are on track to peak ahead of the announced goal of 2030, experts said.

"National governments have no more excuses not to enshrine the Paris Agreement into national law," said Jan Burck of Germanwatch, lead author of the report.

The fact that the growth of renewables continues apace despite depressed oil prices is a positive sign, he added.

"So far, falling oil prices did not cause an increase in demand for the energy source, while a growing number of countries are starting to turn their back on coal."

The 196-nation Paris Agreement calls for curbing global warming at well below 2.0C (3.6F), and 1.5C (2.7F) if possible.

From the fight against climate change to dwindling budgets for research, the US scientific community fears the worst under Donald Trump, seen by many as the most hostile to science of any American president in history.

Trump will be "the first anti-science president we have ever had," warned Michael Lubell, director of public affairs for the American Physical Society in Washington, in the British journal Nature.

"The consequences are going to be very, very severe."

Meanwhile, the vice president-elect, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, is an ultraconservative and a creationist who has rejected Charles Darwin's theory of evolution, the foundation of modern biology.

"There's a fear that the scientific infrastructure in the US is going to be on its knees," said Robin Bell, a geophysicist at Columbia University and incoming president-elect of the American Geophysical Union.

"Everything from funding to being able to attract the global leaders we need to do basic science research."

A key worry is how the New York billionaire declared climate change to be "hoax" orchestrated by the Chinese, and vowed to withdraw from the Paris climate accord.

"If Trump makes good on his campaign promises and pulls out of the Paris Treaty, it is difficult to see a path forward to keeping warming below dangerous levels," said Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at Pennsylvania State University.

- Lost decade -

The United States is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gasses after China.

For John Abraham, professor of engineering at University of St. Thomas in Minnesota, the election of Trump "has cost us at least a decade" in the fight against global warming.

"I study ocean warming and energy balances of the Earth," he told AFP.

"The data is staring us right in the face. We could not afford this election result.

"The only way we can avoid serious climate change is to rapidly implement Obama's work," he added.

Early in October, nearly 400 scientists including 30 Nobel laureates wrote an open letter, criticizing Trump's proposed plans to abandon global climate deals.

"A 'Parexit' would send a clear signal to the rest of the world: 'The United States does not care about the global problems of human-caused climate change,'" they wrote.

"The consequences of opting out of the global community would be severe and long-lasting -- for our planet's climate and for the international credibility of the United States."

- Trump 'uninformed' -

"Clearly he is uninformed on many things," said Rush Holt, director of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the world's largest general scientific society and the publisher of the journal Science.

He raised concern about Trump's choice of leading climate skeptic Myron Ebell to head the transition of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the agency through which President Barack Obama set many of his tougher regulations on pollution from power plants and automobiles.

However Holt, a former lawmaker himself, cautioned that when it comes to Trump, "it's not really clear what he thinks about climate change," he told AFP, noting that Trump has often made contradictory statements.

For instance, Trump applied for permits to build a sea wall protecting one of his golf courses in Ireland, citing the dangers of sea level rise.

"It may well be that if it's presented to him as a matter of dollars and cents then he would think about it differently than if it is presented as a matter of domestic politics or international politics."

Perhaps the realm of space exploration -- long a bipartisan source of pride among Americans -- is the only area of science where Trump's support has been clear.

Answering a question from ScienceDebate.org, Trump said space exploration will promote interest in science education and bring jobs and investment to the country.

"Observation from space and exploring beyond our own space neighborhood should be priorities," he said.


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