Subscribe free to our newsletters via your
. GPS News .




POLITICAL ECONOMY
Outside View: U.S. economy adds 203,000 jobs
by Peter Morici
College Park, Md. (UPI) Dec 6, 2013


disclaimer: image is for illustration purposes only

The U.S. Labor Department reported the U.S. economy added 203,000 jobs in November, in line with the progress of recent months.

Overall, the economy should be stronger in 2014, permitting the Fed to ease back on monthly bond purchases and let longer term interest rates rise modestly.

The unemployment rate fell to 7.0 percent mostly because furloughed government workers returned to their jobs.

With third quarter gross domestic product growth at 3.6 percent, businesses should be adding more jobs but much of that growth was from additions to business inventories as consumers remain tightfisted and goods stay on the shelves. Overall consumer demand contributed about 1 percentage point to growth, whereas inventories accounted for 1.7 percent.

Major apparel retailers report huge stocks of unsold goods entering the final weeks of holiday shopping. More broadly, Black Friday weekend disappointed their expectations for stronger sales than last year. These indicate much slower fourth quarter growth, as businesses slow purchases and retailers trim headcount more than usual in January.

Auto sales and rising home values remain a bright spot. With the uncertainty of new U.S. military activity in the Middle East and another government shutdown receding, consumers' confidence should strengthen through December and into the New Year.

Overall growth will be 1-2 percent in the fourth quarter and then strengthen to 2.5-3 percent in 2014. However, hiring will likely continue at its present pace or improve only moderately. Good paying full-time jobs will continue to be scarce.

Overall, jobs creation is well short of the 365,000 needed each month to reduce unemployment to 6 percent over a period of two or three years. That would require GDP growth in the range of 4-5 percent. Over the last four years, the pace has been a paltry 2.3 percent.

Obamacare health insurance mandates are increasing benefits costs for full-time employees. Along with anticipated penalties for not covering all employees working more than 30 hours per week in 2015, these will cause employers to either reconfigure toward more part-time workers or to only cautiously add workers.

Strident anti-business campaigns targeting McDonalds, Walmart and other employers of lower-skilled workers add to pressures to substitute machines for workers or move to a more part-time economy in hospitality, retailing and other activities where wages are already subpar and job security non-existent. All with lax immigration enforcement, these exacerbate income inequality.

The situation remains particularly tough for recent college graduates and older Americans and many working-age adults have quit looking for work. Adding part-timers who want full-time employment and discouraged adults, the unemployment rate becomes 13.2 percent.

Stronger growth is indeed possible. Four years into the Reagan recovery, following a recession that pushed up unemployment to higher levels than President Barack Obama faced, the economy was growing at a 4.9 percent pace and creating jobs at a breakneck pace.

Still in this environment, Federal Reserve low interest rate policies and quantitative easing (monthly purchases of $85 billion of Treasury and government-agency securities) have done about as much good as can be expected.

With a bit stronger growth beginning in 2014, look for the Fed to begin easing back on bond purchases.

The trade deficits on oil and manufactures with China subtract substantially from demand for U.S. goods, services and workers. Even with the recent surge in domestic production, petroleum imports exceed exports by more than 6 million barrels a day, and will require lifting bans on offshore drilling to eliminate. Currency manipulation and other forms of protectionism remain problems with China, Japan and Germany -- the United States' principal competitors.

Addressing those problems could add nearly more than 4 million jobs directly and 7 million jobs with the usual secondary effects, all but eliminating unemployment and substantially reducing inequality.

(Peter Morici is an economist and professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland School, and a widely published columnist. Follow him in Twitter: @pmorici1)

(United Press International's "Outside View" commentaries are written by outside contributors who specialize in a variety of important issues. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of United Press International. In the interests of creating an open forum, original submissions are invited.)

.


Related Links
The Economy






Comment on this article via your Facebook, Yahoo, AOL, Hotmail login.

Share this article via these popular social media networks
del.icio.usdel.icio.us DiggDigg RedditReddit GoogleGoogle








POLITICAL ECONOMY
Bitcoin value slumps after China banks ban
Beijing (AFP) Dec 05, 2013
The value of Bitcoins, the volatile virtual currency that has soared in recent months and made fortunes for some, plunged Thursday after China banned its banks from providing related services and products. China has become the biggest Bitcoin market in recent months as buyers seek to profit from speculating in the currency. Prices on BTC China, the country's biggest Bitcoin trading platf ... read more


POLITICAL ECONOMY
Saudi, China scientists decode date-palm tree DNA

Qantas steward with Parkinson's to sue over pesticide link

IPM for Billbugs in Orchardgrass

Unlikely collaboration leads to discovery of 'gender-bending' plant

POLITICAL ECONOMY
A step closer to composite-based electronics

50 Meters of Optical Fiber Shrunk to the Size of Microchips

Chips meet Tubes: World's First Terahertz Vacuum Amplifier

NIST demonstrates how losing information can benefit quantum computing

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Northrop Grumman Team Demonstrates Virtual Air Refueling Across Distributed Simulator Locations for USAF

Purdue science balloon, thought lost, makes dramatic return to campus

German helicopter deal examined by federal auditors: report

US telling airlines to stay safe in East China Sea

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Britain pledges commitment to driverless car technology

China approves $1.3 bn Renault-Dongfeng joint venture

Sweden joins race for self-driving cars

Motorized bicycle wheel said to give 20 mph speed, range of 30 miles

POLITICAL ECONOMY
China exports grow strongly on demand from US, Europe

Beijing second costliest Asian city for expats: survey

Chinese tycoon unveils $10bn Ukrainian port project: report

Electronic pickpocketing risk from radio-frequency gadgets

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Humans threaten wetlands' ability to keep pace with sea-level rise

Development near Oregon, Washington public forests

Researchers identify genetic fingerprints of endangered conifers

Lowering stand density reduces mortality of ponderosa pine stands

POLITICAL ECONOMY
China-Brazil satellite fails to enter orbit

Mysteries of Earth's radiation belts uncovered by NASA twin spacecraft

Mapping the world's largest coral reef

Indra To Manage And Operate The Main Sentinel-2

POLITICAL ECONOMY
Laser light at useful wavelengths from semiconductor nanowires

Stanford engineers show how to optimize carbon nanotube arrays for use in hot spots

Ultra-sensitive force sensing with a levitating nanoparticle

Graphene nanoribbons for 'reading' DNA




The content herein, unless otherwise known to be public domain, are Copyright 1995-2014 - Space Media Network. AFP, UPI and IANS news wire stories are copyright Agence France-Presse, United Press International and Indo-Asia News Service. ESA Portal Reports are copyright European Space Agency. All NASA sourced material is public domain. Additional copyrights may apply in whole or part to other bona fide parties. Advertising does not imply endorsement,agreement or approval of any opinions, statements or information provided by Space Media Network on any Web page published or hosted by Space Media Network. Privacy Statement