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NUKEWARS
No Iran strike 'for the moment': Israel defence minister
by Staff Writers
Jerusalem (AFP) Dec 1, 2011


Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak on Thursday ruled out a strike against Iran's nuclear facilities "for the moment," in remarks to public radio, but said that the Jewish state would keep all options open.

"We have no intention of acting for the moment... We should not engage in war when it is not necessary, but there may come a time or another when we are forced to face tests," Barak said.

"Our position has not changed on three points: a nuclear Iran is unacceptable, we are determined to stop that, and all options are on the table," he added.

Israel and much of the international community fear that Iran's nuclear programme masks a drive for a weapons capability. Tehran denies any such ambition and says the programme is for peaceful civilian energy and medical purposes only.

Israel has pushed Washington and the EU for tough sanctions against Tehran, but warned that it would not allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, and that military action to stop the programme remained an option.

Barak said he was confident that military action against Iran would not be devastating for Israel.

"War is not a picnic, but if Israel is forced to act, we won't have 50,000, 5,000 or even 500 dead, so long as people stay in their homes," he said, noting that rockets fired at Israel by Iraq during the 1991 Gulf War had not killed a single Israeli.

Asked about potential differences between the United States and Israel on tactics to stop Iranian nuclear development, Barak stressed that the Jewish state would ultimately take the decisions it thought best.

"It must be understood that Israel is sovereign. The government, the army and the security services are the only ones responsible for the security and the existence of Israel," he said.

Barak declined to comment on what was behind at least two explosions in Iranian cities in recent weeks, only one of which has been confirmed by Iranian authorities.

"Anything that sets back the Iranian nuclear programme, whether it is accidental or the product of other methods, is welcome," he said, refusing to say whether Israeli forces had any role in the incidents.

Former Mossad chief Meir Dagan reiterated his contention that Iran is sufficiently far from having nuclear weapons, and emphasised his objection to a military strike at this timepoint.

"The military option should be the last alternative," he said in an interview broadcast Thursday on Israel's private-run Channel 2. "All other alternatives should be realised before entering a conflict you know how will begin, but have no way of predicting all the aspects of its continuation."

In remarks made public immediately after stepping down as head of the Mossad in January, Dagan estimated Iran would not have a nuclear weapon before 2015.

On Thursday, he evaluated that the world would have sufficient time to respond, if and when Tehran hits the final plateau of achieving nuclear military capability.

"The Iranians, to this point, have walked this route very carefully," Dagan said. "When they (Iran) break into the final stage" of developing a nuclear weapons, "they will enter a deep dispute with the international community, and therefore I think we will have sufficient advance notice."

"In this timetable, we will have enough time to reach an extreme decision of employing military force."

The International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear watchdog, last month warned it had "credible" information that Iran was carrying out "activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device."

According to the report, dated November 8, Iran has produced 4,922 kilograms, nearly five tonnes, of uranium enriched to 3.5 percent, as well as 73.7 kilograms of uranium enriched to around 20 percent.

On Monday, Brigadier General Itai Brun, head of research for Israeli military intelligence, told lawmakers he estimated that Iran was "using 6,000 centrifuges regularly, out of 8,000 installed."

"Until today, they have managed to accumulate approximately 50 tonnes of low enriched uranium, and a bit less than 100 kilos of 20 percent enriched uranium," he said.

Brun said Iran would need at least 220 kilos of 20 percent enriched uranium if it decided on a drive for the much higher levels of enrichment necessary to produce a nuclear weapon.

Israel is widely reported to have the Middle East's sole but undeclared nuclear arsenal.

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Photos show Iran base decimated by blast
Washington (AFP) Nov 30, 2011 - A recent deadly explosion at a missile base in Iran caused major devastation and will take much longer to repair than a top Iranian general has predicted, according to an analysis of new satellite photos of the site.

In commercial satellite photos released by a private Washington institute, the sprawling compound west of Tehran looks decimated, with buildings seriously damaged or completely wiped out from the November 12 explosion.

"The entire facility was essentially destroyed," said Paul Brannan, a senior analyst at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), which posted the images this week.

"It looks like almost half of the buildings are gone and what's left are the skeletons of the buildings. I would call that a complete destruction of the facility," Brannan, who wrote an analysis of the pictures, told AFP on Wednesday.

Media reports said at least 36 members of the country's Revolutionary Guards were killed in the explosion, including a key figure in Iran's ballistic missile program, Major General Hassan Moqaddam.

Despite speculation the incident may have been a covert Israeli or US-backed attack, the Revolutionary Guards have repeatedly said the blast that rocked the base in Bid Ganeh was an accident.

The chief of staff of Iran's armed forces, General Hassan Firouzabadi, has said the base was being used for the production of an unspecified "experimental product" that could be used against the United States or Israel.

Firouzabadi said the development of the project had been delayed by two weeks because of the explosion, but the satellite images suggested otherwise.

"I would doubt that significantly," Brannan said of the military chief's estimate. "The place was destroyed. You'd have to rebuild it completely. Two weeks is way too short for that."

But Brannan said it was plausible the explosion could have been the result of an accident and that rocket fuel when ignited poses a serious danger.

Brannan said the center of the explosion looks to have been located at what appears to be a crater about 15 meters (yards) wide at the blast site, he said.

On the ISIS website, Brannan wrote that about the same number of trucks were visible in photos after the blast as in images two months earlier.

"Thus, most of the damage seen in the November 22, 2011 image likely resulted from the explosion," he wrote.

It was unclear how the blast would affect Iran's ballistic missile program, which the United States believes is part of an effort to develop nuclear weapons.

The explosion follows a series of setbacks for Iran's nuclear project that are widely suspected to be the result of sabotage, amid speculation Israel and the United States are behind the campaign.

Prominent scientists in Iran's nuclear program have been targeted for assassination and the Stuxnet computer worm reportedly wreaked havoc on industrial equipment for Iran's uranium enrichment work.

Analysts say the Americans favor sanctions along with covert action to disrupt and delay the Iranian nuclear program instead of military action that Washington fears could trigger a wider regional war.

Tensions between Iran and the West have escalated amid a push for fresh sanctions and after Iranian protesters overran the British embassy and another diplomatic compound in Tehran on Tuesday.



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Britain expels Iranian diplomats after embassy attack
London (AFP) Nov 30, 2011
Britain expelled all Iranian diplomats and shut its embassy in Tehran on Wednesday after the mission was attacked by protesters angry at fresh sanctions against the Islamic republic's nuclear programme. Iran warned Britain of "repercussions" and urged other European Union nations not to follow suit, although several including France, Germany and the Netherlands said they were recalling their ... read more


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