In a new study led by an international team of climate experts, researchers revealed that intense, localized bursts of heavy rainfall can be forecast by identifying rapid air rises through clouds. The team introduced a cutting-edge modeling system that represents a significant advancement in the identification and prediction of short-duration, extreme rainfall. Enhanced forecasting of these intense downpours will provide communities with crucial preparation time, potentially mitigating the devastating effects of flash floods like those experienced in Boscastle in August 2004 and London in August 2022.
The research, published in the journal 'Weather and Climate Extremes', was conducted by the Met Office and Newcastle University, with collaboration from the Universidad de Costa Rica and Adam Mickiewicz University in Poland.
Paul Davies, the study's lead author, Met Office Principal Fellow, and Visiting Professor at Newcastle University's School of Engineering, stated: "The new model is aimed at enhancing the UK's resilience to extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. This approach addresses the urgent need for improved prediction capabilities and will help both UK and global communities in mitigating the risks associated with increasingly extreme weather events."
He further explained, "In order to understand these extreme rainfall events we have made an exciting discovery: the presence of a three-layered atmospheric structure, consisting of Moist Absolute Unstable Layers sandwiched between a stable upper layer and a near-stable low layer."
The research highlights the significance of the atmospheric structure in extreme rainfall environments, particularly focusing on the thermodynamics linked to sub-hourly rainfall production. This distinctive three-layered structure is critical to understanding localized downpours and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions, which could enable better prediction of extreme rainfall and flash flooding.
Professor Hayley Fowler, a co-author of the study and Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University, remarked: "I am delighted to help to lead such exciting new research which provides a paradigm shift in thinking about extreme rainfall processes. We will further develop this model into an operational system which can help to deliver on the UN's call for Early Warnings for All, which aims to ensure universal protection from hazardous weather, water, or climate events through life-saving early warning systems by the end of 2027. With human-induced climate change leading to more extreme weather conditions, the need for accurate early warning systems is more critical now than ever before."
This research offers the potential to create an advanced extreme rainfall warning system, enhancing the capability of forecasters and emergency responders to predict and prepare for dangerous flash floods, ultimately improving public safety.
The Met Office, a Category 2 Responder, is responsible for issuing warnings about severe weather impacts to emergency services, governments, and the public. They work closely with partners like the Environment Agency and the Scottish Environment Protection Agency to deliver coordinated flood forecasts and warnings. The Met Office is also part of the Natural Hazards Partnership, which provides coordinated assessments and advice on natural hazards across the UK.
Research Report:A new conceptual model for understanding and predicting life-threatening rainfall extremes
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