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Mankind using Earth's resources faster than replenished

Global oil demand picking up -- study
London (UPI) Nov 23, 2009 - Global oil demand has at last turned a corner and is on the rise again after falling for six consecutive quarters, the London-based Center for Global Energy Studies reported Monday. Despite a rising demand, however, "oil prices should remain around their current level over the winter," CGES said in its Monthly Oil Report for November. Crude oil prices rose during the weekend, pushing toward $79, as Iran began a military exercise that heightened tensions in the Middle East. The recent stability of oil prices within a relatively high bracket of $70-80 a barrel drew the attention of CGES experts in October, when they interpreted the prices as an outcome of speculative inflow of cash in "paper barrels" by investors looking for higher returns than those available from bank deposits and stocks.

CGES said its findings suggest the supply of crude from member-countries of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries was on the rise, and supplies from non-OPEC nations reached their highest level in more than two years in October, driven by demand from the United States and the former Soviet Union countries. With those fundamentals in view, "oil prices should remain around their current level over the winter," CGES said. Other analysts said a crisis over Iran could still upset the balance and force changes in current prognoses. OPEC oil ministers are scheduled to meet Dec. 22 in Luanda, Angola, but are not expected to decide whether to increase or reduce supply, CGES said. "The global economic recovery, though clearly under way, remains fragile, in spite of the biggest fiscal and monetary stimulus the world has ever seen, and worries remain that it will not survive the ending of the various fiscal stimulus packages," CGES said.

A reversal in the recovery and a slump in demand are seen as potential pressures on the current oil price level, which is over and above OPEC expectations and a source of "delight and relief of OPEC member-countries, who had expected to have to cope with prices closer to $50 per barrel." A run away from speculative "paper barrels" into other forms of investment can also add pressure on the price, but until any of those factors come into play, the rise in demand and current signs of recovery are seen likely to sustain the market at current levels. "The main macroeconomic concern at present is that the recovery, now obviously under way, might prove to be fragile once the unprecedentedly large fiscal stimuli end, as they must, and once the monetary easing that has taken place in the U.S., the U.K., across Europe, in Japan and in China begins to be reined in," CGES said.

"Most central banks have twisted the bond yield curves under their influence downwards at the short end to help promote economic recovery, but the amount of debt that has to be financed (particularly in the U.S. and the U.K.) is so large that at some stage or another short-term rates will have to rise." In the meantime, the center said, with two-year U.S. bond yields now at 0.67 percent, against the 10-year yields of 3.33 percent, the U.S. dollar carry trade that has evolved over the past six months continues to attract adherents. The speculative practice, it said, "has helped to create a number of asset bubbles, including oil."
by Staff Writers
Washington (AFP) Nov 24, 2009
Humanity would need five Earths to produce the resources needed if everyone lived as profligately as Americans, according to a report issued Tuesday.

As it is, humanity each year uses resources equivalent to nearly one-and-a-half Earths to meet its needs, said the report by Global Footprint Network, an international think tank.

"We are demanding nature's services -- using resources and creating CO2 emissions -- at a rate 44 percent faster than what nature can regenerate and reabsorb," the document said.

"That means it takes the Earth just under 18 months to produce the ecological services humanity needs in one year," it said.

And if humankind continues to use natural resources and produce waste at the current rate, "we will require the resources of two planets to meet our demands by the early 2030s," a gluttonous level of ecological spending that may cause major ecosystem collapse, the report said.

Global Footprint Network calculated the ecological footprint -- the amount of land and sea needed to produce the resources a population consumes and absorb its carbon dioxide emissions -- of more than 100 countries and of the entire globe.

The think-tank worked out how many resources the planet has, how much humans use, and who is using what.

Back in 1961, the entire planet used just over slightly more than half of Earth's biocapacity.

Today, 80 percent of countries use more biocapacity than is available within their borders. They import resources from abroad, deplete their own stocks and fill "waste sinks," such as the atmosphere and ocean, with carbon dioxide.

The average American has an ecological footprint of nine global hectares (23 acres), or the equivalent of 17 US football fields.

The average European's footprint is half that size, but still too big to be sustainable in the long term.

At the other end of the scale are impoverished countries like Malawi, Haiti, Nepal or Bangladesh, where the footprints are around half a global hectare, or 1.25 acres -- often not even enough to provide for basic food, shelter and sanitation, the report said.

But there are relatively easy measures that can be taken to slow the rot.

"In most high-income, industrialized countries like the US and European countries, the biggest part of the ecological footprint is the carbon footprint," Nicole Freeling, a spokeswoman for the Global Footprint Network, told AFP.

"One of the biggest things such a country can do to reduce its ecological footprint is to manage energy more efficiently and effectively -- for example, by investing in renewable energy and clean tech on the one hand, and resource-efficient infrastructure and compact urban development on the other," she said.

Changing consumption habits can also reduce the global footprint.

"While people living at or below subsistence levels may need to increase their consumption to move out of poverty, more affluent people can reduce consumption and still improve their quality of life," Freeling said.

earlier related report
Polluters under pressure as US ponders climate talks target
Washington (AFP) Nov 24, 2009 - The United States is to announce concrete targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions as pressure mounts on polluters to find a formula for success two weeks ahead of a crucial climate summit.

China has put the issue on the agenda of a summit meeting with the European Union next week and leaders of the 53 members of the Commonwealth, representing around two billion people, are set to address it at their weekend gathering in Trinidad.

And Australia, the world's heaviest per capita polluter, is attempting to rush legislation through parliament curbing emissions ahead of the December 7-18 climate conference in Copenhagen.

But experts say the key issue ahead of the summit is uncertainty over what, if anything, the United States will do to reduce global warming, widely considered a major threat to the survival of the planet.

That will become clear within days, US President Barack Obama's administration said late Monday, attempting to remove a major obstacle to the summit goal of finding a global treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol which expires in 2012.

"Countries will need to put on the table what they are willing to do on emissions," a senior administration official told journalists. "We expect that a decision will be made in the coming days."

On Tuesday Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd urged parliament in Canberra to rush through legislation ahead of the conference that would slash carbon pollution by up to 25 percent by 2020.

And China said that the issue would be on the agenda of a summit with the European Union on Monday in the eastern city of Nanjing.

At its two-yearly summit, the Commonwealth, composed mainly of former British colonies, is to put forward a strong political statement that will address global warming, said the group's Secretary General Kamalesh Sharma.

Australia and China are among 192 countries invited to take part in the Copenhagen conference and so far 65 world leaders have agreed to attend, including from Germany, France and Brazil.

An emissions target from the United States, the world's number two polluter and wealthiest country, was essential for the success of the conference, according to United Nations climate chief Yvo de Boer.

"The key issue here at the moment is the United States. My sense is Obama will be in a position to come to Copenhagen with a target and a financial contribution," he said in Brussels on Monday.

It was unclear what the official US target would be but the administration official said it would not differ much from levels set out in legislation before Congress.

A US House of Representatives bill, passed in June, calls for cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and by 83 percent by 2050. A bill before the Senate talks of a 20-percent reduction from 2005 levels by 2020.

The European Union has vowed to reduce its emissions by 20 percent from 1990 levels before 2020, raising the target to 30 percent in the event of an international agreement. Japan has offered 25 percent, but attached conditions.

In order to limit warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit), a threshold widely adopted as safe, scientists say emissions by industrialized nations must fall by 25-40 percent by 2020 over 1990 levels.

The United States was the world's biggest carbon emitter until it was overtaken by China in 2006, according to the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of leading climate scientists.

China along with India and other developing nations, is reluctant to commit to binding gas reductions at the Copenhagen talks, arguing that wealthy nations bear historic responsibility for carbon emissions.

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Australian PM urges parliament to approve carbon cuts
Canberra (AFP) Nov 24, 2009
Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd urged parliament Tuesday to approve legislation aiming to slash carbon pollution by up to 25 percent by 2020 ahead of next month's global talks on climate change. Rudd said Australia had to get "real" about climate change by introducing the cap-and-trade system for greenhouse gas emissions, as the opposition coalition agonised over supporting the bill ... read more







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