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Kremlin transition key for Russia future: analysts

by Staff Writers
Moscow (AFP) March 3, 2008
With presidential elections behind it, Russia now enters a transition period that will provide important clues on the future direction of the nuclear-armed energy powerhouse, analysts said Monday.

No one expects president-elect Dmitry Medvedev to make any abrupt departures from the main policies of his mentor President Vladimir Putin, and indeed the incoming Kremlin chief has made clear that his priority is continuity.

At the same time however, Medvedev will have to assemble a team of his own, and even if he names Putin to head the government, the two men must now make concrete arrangements about who handles what in the future.

This division of prerogatives -- and the selection of people to fulfill them -- will be worked out ahead of Medvedev's scheduled May 7 inauguration, and every move will be scrutinised intensely for signs of Russia's future path.

"This period is crucial," said Maria Lipman, a political analyst with the Moscow Carnegie Centre think tank.

"The extent to which those who rise now will owe it to Medvedev and not to Putin is the big question. It will not be an overnight event -- it will take a few months to see the trend. But there should be clarity by the summer."

Within hours of the close of polls in Sunday's presidential election, Medvedev, 42, had already moved to answer one of the big questions the world has about his presidency: Who will be in charge of Russian foreign policy?

"Foreign policy, according to the constitution, is determined by the president," he stated in his first post-election news conference.

Words are the easy part however and analysts say it is the deeds that must be ironed out in the coming months that will prove most challenging.

"He will now work on forming his administration and his government, including on the practical division of powers," explained Sergei Markov, a Kremlin-connected political commentator.

"And here there are many important questions to be resolved. For example, there is nothing written in the constitution about who controls state television -- the president or the government," he said.

"There is nothing written anywhere about who controls Gazprom and Rosneft. There is nothing written about who controls the United Russia party. And though the president nominates regional governors, the government also plays a role."

It is considered virtually a foregone conclusion that Medvedev, who owes his meteoric political rise entirely to Putin, will appoint the outgoing president as his prime minister, but how they resolve these and other issues will be key.

Another vital question to watch during the spring transition period is the fate of powerful Putin aides like Igor Sechin and Vladislav Surkov known as the "siloviki" -- Russian for "the strong ones" -- for their ties to the military and intelligence services.

Will they move with Putin into the government headquarters building, remain in the Kremlin to watch over Medvedev or be shifted out of official responsibilities altogether?

"That is the big question we would all like to know the answer to" and that will have to be resolved in the months ahead, said Markov.

Analysts agree that a reshuffle of the current government is on the cards, though they expect key figures like Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Kudrin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to be kept on in the near term.

Whatever lies in store, the outside world will see little of the mechanics of the transition itself and will learn of any changes only well after they have been agreed on in every detail, expert say.

"Not in 15 years has there been such a campaign with no sign of electoral struggle between the presidential candidates," commented Alexander Konovalov, director of the Institute for Strategic Assessment.

"But there is plenty of invisible struggle taking place elsewhere. It's just that the people do not witness it."

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Walker's World: Russia's modern czar
Munich, Germany (UPI) Dec 12, 2007
Russia's next president, Dmitri Medvedev, known to his friends as Dima, is a fan of the rock groups Deep Purple, Led Zeppelin and Black Sabbath. He swims a mile every day, and he is very flattered when anyone tells him he looks the spitting image of Russia's last czar, Nicholas II.







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