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POLITICAL ECONOMY
Japan premier announces sales tax hike plan
by Staff Writers
Tokyo (AFP) Jan 24, 2012


Japan's prime minister told parliament Tuesday he will move to double sales taxes, warning that the future of the world's third-largest economy depends on turning the rising tide of public debt.

Yoshihiko Noda has staked his premiership on the issue and in his policy speech opening the new session of the Diet said he would submit legislation by the end of March that will ramp up the cost of everything from rice to Rolexes.

However, underlining the huge task ahead, the Bank of Japan also on Tuesday lowered its growth forecasts for the economy, predicting a contraction in the year to March 31, and slower growth than first tipped in fiscal 2012.

Less than five months into the job, Noda is trying to sell the deeply unpopular tax rise to a sceptical public, and avoid becoming the sixth prime minister in as many years to disappear beneath the waves of Japan's viciously factional politics.

Noda said the country has "no time to spare" in reducing its fiscal burden.

"It's impossible for young people to believe that things will get better tomorrow in a society where debts resting on future generations continue growing," he said.

"It is not too much to say that the revival of hope of the entire society depends on the success of this combined reform.

"This year must be the initial year of Japan's revival. Above all, I aim to break away from a politics that is incapable of decision," Noda said.

With burgeoning pension and social security costs in a country where the population is greying and shrinking, only around 40 percent of what the government spends is currently made up from taxes.

The rest is financed from borrowing, leaving debt at more than double the country's gross domestic product, an eyewatering ratio that dwarfs troubled Greece and will only grow unless more tax revenue is raised, experts warn.

Noda's proposals could boost annual tax receipts by roughly 10 trillion yen ($130 billion), the first step towards Tokyo weaning itself off borrowing.

The government had intended to achieve a primary balance surplus by 2020, but now admits it is unlikely to hit that target.

The plan would see consumption taxes rise to 8.0 percent in April 2014 and to 10 percent in October 2015 "on condition that the economy is going to pick up," Noda said.

The country's March 11 earthquake and tsunami had brought a series of pressing issues to bear, which politicians had a "responsibility" to address, including reform of the tax and social welfare systems, he added.

With the world's finances in dire straits, Japan urgently had to get its own fiscal house in order if it is not to fall victim to "rampaging" financial markets like some European countries have, the premier told lawmakers.

"We have no time to spare for this combined reform in terms of the need for having strong fiscal structure that will not be tossed around by the power of the financial markets," he said.

His proposals have won support from major media, businesses and international organisations, including the International Monetary Fund.

But opinion polls consistently show he has a long way to go to persuade the public of the merits of their coughing up more in an economy struggling to keep its head above the water.

The premier must underscore the seriousness of Japan's predicament to voters, and stress plans to cut government salaries and the size of Japan's bureaucracy, said Tomoaki Iwai, politics professor at Nihon University.

"Only the tax hike has drawn attention," said Iwai. "If he could show that politics is also doing its part to feel the pain and discuss the merits of the policy package, he could lay a case for people to consider."

While highlighting the need to get the country's finances in order, the central bank's prediction for growth over the next two years heaps further pressure on Noda.

The BoJ said it believed the economy would shrink 0.4 percent in the year to March 31, reversing an earlier prediction of a 0.3 percent rise in GDP.

It also said the economy would grow in fiscal 2012, but only by 2.0 percent, less than the 2.2 percent it had originally forecast, amid a "slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen."

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Japan sees first annual trade deficit in 31 years
Tokyo (AFP) Jan 25, 2012 - Japan is to announce its first annual trade deficit for more than 30 years on Wednesday after the March quake-tsunami and strong yen hit exports, and high fuel costs pushed up import bills.

After rising from the ashes of World War II Japan established itself as a trading nation, enjoying enormous trade surpluses with its competitive cars, electronics and other exports.

But it will have slipped into the red for 2011 after the March earthquake and tsunami disrupted supply chains, and a subsequent nuclear accident left atomic reactors off-line, forcing up fossil fuel imports for power generation.

The eurozone debt crisis also slowed the global economy and sent traders scurrying into the safety of the yen, causing the currency to rocket and reducing the income of Japanese exporters.

Japan's last calendar-year trade deficit came in 1980, when the resource-poor nation was reeling from the second oil crisis and imports exceeded exports by 2.6 trillion yen.

In 2010 the country posted a trade surplus of 6.6 trillion yen but in the first 11 months of 2011 it racked up a deficit of nearly 2.3 trillion yen.

The finance ministry will release the latest trade data at 2350 GMT Tuesday, with economists expecting a further deficit for December.

"It was the worst year for Japan's trade since 1980. It was caused by slumps in exports and rises in imports due to the higher need for alternative energy," said Satoshi Osanai, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research.

"Trade went in bad directions both ways," he said, noting that export falls had been worse in the 2008 financial turmoil that followed the Lehman Brothers collapse, when Japan recorded a trade deficit over the fiscal year.

Japanese demand for oil and other fuel is unlikely to decrease in the near future and Osanai pointed out that resource prices remained high, "inflicting a big negative impact".

The strong yen, which hit repeated post-World War II highs against the US dollar in 2011 and remains close to its peak, contributes to lowering import costs but its negative effect on exports is larger.

UBS economist Daiju Aoki warned Japan was on course to record repeated trade deficits.

"As the nation ages its production capability declines, hurting export power," he said.

"Japan will come to run trade deficits over the long term. It may return to figures in the black in 2012 or 2013 but the trend of suffering deficits could start."



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POLITICAL ECONOMY
China's economy start new year weak
Shanghai (AFP) Jan 20, 2012
China's manufacturing activity shrank for the third straight month in January, data showed Friday, leading analysts to warn of a further slowdown for the world's number two economy. HSBC's preliminary purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 48.8 in January, up only marginally from 48.7 in December, the British banking giant said. A reading above 50 indicates expansion while a reading b ... read more


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