Global oil demand will increase this year by 300,000 barrels per day to 86.9 million barrels per day (mbpd), and by the same amount next year to 88.2 mbpd, giving annual gains of 2.5 percent and 1.4 percent.

The new forecasts take into account updated and upgraded global growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund, which sees the economy expanding this year at "an impressive 4.7 percent" and next year at 4.2 percent.

If global economic growth was only 3.0 percent next year, global oil demand would be 87.1 mbpd "as emerging countries would bear the brunt of weaker economic activity in terms of much lower oil use."

The International Energy Agency put OECD oil demand this year at 45.8 mbpd, a rise of 320,000 bpd or 0.7 percent from 2009.

But in 2011, OECD demand "is expected to resume its gentle structural decline," falling 290,000 barrels or 0.6 percent.

For countries outside the OECD area, total demand was put at 41.2 mbpd in 2010 for a gain of 1.8 mbpd or 4.7 percent, "fast approaching the historical record, reached in 2004."

For 2011, the rate of growth would slow to a rise of 1.5 mbpd or 3.7 percent.

Data from China suggested that oil demand "surged by 8.5 percent" in August on a 12-month basis, more than twice as fast as in July when signs of a sharp slowdown led some observers to think that a major change was underway.

The data for August "suggests that the Chinese government is intent on engineering a soft, rather than a hard, landing," the IEA said, adding: "As such, the country's oil demand could well continue to surprise on the upside."

Global oil supplies in September fell 150,000 bpd from August because of reduced non-OPEC output but rose by 1.5 mbpd on a 12-month comparison.

Estimated supplies next year from countries outside of the 12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries should rise 150,000 bpd to 53.1 mbpd, reflecting increased production by the United States, Canada and China.

Supplies from OPEC rose by 40,000 bpd in September.

Demand for OPEC-sourced oil rose to 29.8 mbpd in the third quarter from 29 mbpd in the second quarter "after a large upward demand revision," the IEA said.

Estimated demand for OPEC oil next year was raised by 10,000 bpd to 29.3 mbpd.

In September, production by OPEC members excluding Iraq fell by 150,000 bpd to 26.77 mbpd.

"As a result, compliance rates relative to targeted production cuts improved to 54 percent last month compared with 50 percent in August. The group is now pumping 1.93 mbpd above the implied 24.845 mbpd target level."

The IEA said that compliance by OPEC members with targets set in January 2009 "has eased significantly this year," with Nigeria showing "zero compliance."

The United Arab Emirates showed the highest compliance rate at 90 percent.

Several OPEC ministers said before an OPEC meeting on Thursday that "compliance with existing targets" would be on the agenda, the IEA said.

In August, the amount of oil held in industrial inventories in OECD countries rose by 15.8 million barrels to 2.79 billion barrels, the highest level for 12 years, the IEA's estimates showed.

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