How do we survive crises then and now

How do we survive crises then and now
by Robert Schreiber
Berlin, Germany (SPX) Jan 22, 2025

When crises strike, how do humans adapt and endure? Whether facing food shortages, dwindling resources, or sudden environmental changes, the ability to survive often hinges on the choices individuals and communities make. Researchers often refer to these survival mechanisms as "resilience."

Resilience encompasses the strategies people employ to endure and recover from crises. Unlike a static trait inherent to specific individuals or societies, resilience emerges as a dynamic outcome of individual and collective decisions. It adapts to circumstances, but there is no one-size-fits-all approach that guarantees success in every crisis.

A recent study published in Science Advances delves into the efficacy and costs of four resilience strategies commonly used both historically and in modern times. Conducted by archaeologists from Aarhus University and the University of Colorado, the study employed computer simulations to analyze investment in infrastructure, exchange, mobility, and economic adjustment.

Mobility, Infrastructure, and Social Ties Prove Effective

The research highlighted stark differences in the effectiveness of these strategies. "We noticed early in our study that economic adjustment performed significantly worse than other strategies across a wide range of crisis conditions. In short, if a crisis hits, it will not be enough to work harder to obtain the necessary resources if there are not enough resources available in the first place," said lead author Colin Wren.

Mobility-relocating to a safer area-emerged as a practical strategy with moderate costs, provided there are viable destinations. Exchange, which involves sharing resources within social networks, functioned as a hybrid approach, blending mobility and investment. On the other hand, economic adjustment-modifying behaviors to cope with crises-proved the least effective.

Learning from the Past for Future Crises

The study's findings are reinforced by ethnographic and archaeological evidence showing how diverse groups historically employed these strategies with varying results. "What this study also shows is that we can and should look into the past to better understand what resilience strategies worked for our ancestors, so that we can choose the best ones for the kind of crisis we expect to see more of in the future," explained co-author Iza Romanowska. She emphasized that while the findings are insightful, they stem from simplified computer simulations and may not directly apply to contemporary scenarios.

The researchers hope their work will encourage proactive crisis management strategies, combining lessons from history with modern tools to better prepare societies for future challenges.

Research Report:Bad year econometrics: Agent-based modeling of risk management strategies under varying regimes of environmental change