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NUKEWARS
Crunch round of Iran nuclear talks
by Staff Writers
Vienna (AFP) Nov 18, 2014


Iran nuclear crisis: a diplomatic see-saw
Vienna (AFP) Nov 18, 2014 - Below is a summary of the main developments in the crisis over Iran's nuclear activities since 2002.

2003

- August: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reveals that traces of enriched uranium have been identified in Natanz, central Iran, after an Iranian exiled opposition group in 2002 revealed the existence of a nuclear installation.

- October: Following an unprecedented visit by foreign ministers from Britain, France and Germany, Iran suspends uranium enrichment activities but later vows it will never renounce its nuclear programme.

2005

- August 8: After the election of hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Tehran resumes uranium enrichment in Isfahan, central Iran.

2006

- January: The UN Security Council's five permanent members -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States -- agree to have the IAEA present the issue to the full Council.

- June 6: The permanent members plus Germany, dubbed P5+1, propose a framework for talks but Iran later rejects the offer.

- December 23: The UN imposes the first of several rounds of sanctions on Iran's trade in sensitive nuclear materials and technology.

2007

- November 7: Iran says it has at least 3,000 centrifuges for enrichment, which in theory would allow it to produce enough enriched uranium for a nuclear bomb in less than a year.

2009

April 8: Following the November election of US President Barack Obama, world powers offer to resume negotiations with Tehran, which later declares major advances in its nuclear drive as Ahmadinejad opens a uranium enrichment site in Isfahan.

- September 25: Western nations reveal the existence of a previously undeclared enrichment site inside a mountain in Fordo.

- October 1: Negotiations resume, with an agreement in principle for Iranian uranium to be enriched abroad, but a final deal is not reached.

2010

- February 9: Iran says it has begun to enrich uranium to 20 percent at Natanz, close to the level required for a nuclear weapon.

2011

- November 8: The IAEA points to a possible military dimension to Iran's nuclear activities.

2012

- January 23: After talks break down again, the EU slaps an embargo on Iranian oil exports.

2013

- August 6: Newly-elected President Hassan Rouhani says Tehran is ready for "serious" negotiations.

- September 27: Rouhani reveals he and Obama have spoken by telephone in the highest-level contact between the two countries since 1979.

- October 14: Negotiations resume

- November 24: Iran agrees to curb its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief in a preliminary deal which comes into force on January 20.

2014

- February 18: Negotiations start on a permanent accord.

- July 18: Iran and world powers agree to extend the deadline for a permanent deal to November 24.

- November 5: Obama says the US has put forward a "framework" plan to meet Iran's energy needs. Two days later the IAEA says Iran is still failing to provide answers in its probe into possible military dimensions.

- November 11: Russia signs a deal with Iran to build two new nuclear reactors and agrees to expand the total to nine.

- November 18: Iran and the six world powers begin a final round of talks

Iran and world powers ratcheted up the rhetoric Tuesday as they entered a final round of nuclear talks six days before a deadline for a deal, with still-considerable differences dogging the negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif warned on arrival in Vienna that an accord would only happen if the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany make no "excessive demands".

"If, because of excessive demands ... we don't get a result, then the world will understand that the Islamic Republic sought a solution, a compromise and a constructive agreement and that it will not renounce its rights and the greatness of the nation," Zarif told Iranian media.

But US Secretary of State John Kerry, in London but expected in Vienna in the coming days, said it was "imperative that Iran works with us with all possible effort to prove to the world that the programme is peaceful".

"This is a very critical week obviously in Iran negotiations," Kerry said. "We hope we get there but we can't make any predictions."

In a joint news conference, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond called for more "flexibility by the Iranians to convince us that their intentions in their nuclear programme are entirely peaceful".

The landmark accord being sought by Monday's deadline, after months of negotiations, is aimed at easing fears that Tehran might develop nuclear weapons under the guise of civilian activities.

It could resolve a 12-year standoff over Iran's atomic programme, silence talk of war and help normalise Iran's fraught relations with the West after 35 years of mistrust and antagonism.

It could also boost Iran's economy, improve the lives of ordinary Iranians and mark a rare foreign policy success for US President Barack Obama, five years after he offered Tehran an "outstretched hand".

US and Iranian negotiations are under domestic pressure not to give too much away, however, while Israel -- the Middle East's sole if undeclared nuclear-armed power -- and others in the volatile region are sceptical.

- Devil in the detail -

In order to make it virtually impossible for Iran to assemble a nuclear weapon, the US, China, Russia, Britain, France and Germany (the P5+1) want Iran to scale down its nuclear programme.

Iran, which insists its nuclear aims are exclusively peaceful despite failing to declare parts of its programme in the past, wants painful sanctions lifted.

Some areas appear provisionally settled. But the big problem remains enrichment, rendering uranium suitable for power generation and other peaceful uses -- but also, at high purities, for a weapon.

At present Iran could use its existing infrastructure to produce enough weapons-grade uranium for one bomb in a few months, although any such "breakout" attempt would be detected very quickly.

And Iran wants to ramp up massively the number of enrichment centrifuges in order, it says, to make fuel for a fleet of future reactors.

The West wants the number of centrifuges slashed, saying Iran has no such need at present, something that would extend the "breakout" period to at least a year.

Other thorny issues are the duration of the accord and the pace at which sanctions are lifted, an area where Iranian expectations are "excessive", one Western diplomat said.

- Another extension? -

Given the differences, many analysts expect more time to be put on the clock.

"There is virtually no possibility that a complete deal will be concluded by November 24," former top US diplomat Robert Einhorn, now an expert with the Brookings Institution, told AFP, predicting another extension of "several more months".

The alternative -- walking away -- would be "catastrophic," Arms Control Association analyst Kelsey Davenport said.

"Given the political capital that both sides have invested... it would be foolish to walk away from the talks and throw away this historic opportunity," Davenport told AFP.

For now though, with another extension presenting risks of its own -- fresh US sanctions, not least -- officials insist that they remain focused on the deadline.

"An extension is not and has not been a subject of conversation at this point," a senior US official said late Monday.

Zarif held a working lunch in the Austrian capital Tuesday with the powers' lead negotiator, former EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton.

Further meetings included one between all six powers and Iran and US-Iran bilateral discussions, diplomats said.


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